We had a nice bounce back Tuesday night, going 2-1 with our best bets. While the Blue Jays fell flat in a good spot, we hit both pitching props to turn a profit.
Let's take a closer look at Wednesday's card as we look to keep moving in the right direction.
Nationals (+200) @ Blue Jays (-240)
Note: This is an early start. First pitch is expected at 3:07 p.m. ET.
The Blue Jays, as has so often been the case of late, squandered a golden opportunity Tuesday night against a struggling MacKenzie Gore.
Luckily for them, they face another attackable arm - and one with much less talent - in Patrick Corbin on Wednesday. Thus, we're going back to the well and backing the Jays' offense to start strong.
Corbin's pitching profile is littered with red flags. Excluding balls put in play, he has thrown more balls than strikes over the last month. When he does hit the zone, opposing batters are exploiting Corbin in a big way.
His barrel rate of 13.8% is sky-high and he has one of the worst xwOBAs among the day's projected starters. If not for a .177 BABIP, Corbin's recent results would look a whole lot worse.
The Jays let Gore off the hook, but they certainly had opportunities to score runs. They haven't had an issue in that department against lefties recently, plating 12 earned runs against the last three left-handed starters they'd faced prior to Tuesday.
Logan Allen and Justin Steele, who is having a phenomenal year, were featured in that group, and they bring a lot more to the table than Corbin.
Even without Bo Bichette, the Jays hit lefties fairly well, and Corbin is one of the best draws they could ask for. With Corbin's run line set at 3.5 and out line at just 16.5, I see more value in backing the Jays to score three runs inside the first five.
Bet: Blue Jays F5 O2.5 runs (-130)
Rich Hill over 1.5 walks allowed
Note: This is an early start. First pitch is expected at 2:15 p.m. ET.
Hill has been a walk machine all season. He's issued at least two free passes in 18 of 23 starts this year, which equates to a whopping 78% of the time.
Although he went under the number in three of the past five, that's likely just a matter of a lower pitch count. Hill conceded a combined 13 runs in the three games he didn't walk two batters and threw 83 pitches or fewer in two of them (his average is 93).
Simply put, the veteran allowed so many hits - and runs - that he got chased a few batters early, decreasing his opportunities to walk batters.
That shouldn't be as much of a problem as the Padres face the Cardinals. St. Louis' offense is in putrid form, ranking 29th with an average of 3.58 runs scored per game in August. The Cardinals aren't generating hits or power. The one thing they are doing, however, is drawing walks.
They have walked in nearly 11% of their at bats versus lefties in August. In terms of game-by-game success, five of the past six left-handed starters the Cardinals have faced allowed at least two walks. Four of them walked four batters or more.
Suffice to say, this is not a dream matchup for a lefty struggling with his control.
Odds: +110 (playable to -135)
Kyle Freeland under 15.5 outs
Like many pitchers, Freeland performs a lot better away from Coors Field. He's recorded an average of 16.9 outs in his road starts and notched at least 16 in 10 of those 12 games. That's an 83% clip.
It's been a much different story for the Rockies left-hander at home, where he's gone over five times in 13 tries, including just one of the last seven.
I expect that trend to continue Wednesday against the Braves. They have more power than anybody in the league and the park factors make their offense even more dangerous.
They also feast on left-handed pitching, ranking first in batting average, on-base percentage, barrel rate, and xwOBA on the year.
Freeland recorded 13 outs the last time he drew the Braves - and that was away from Coors. Don't expect any better in the sport's most hitter-friendly park.
Odds: -145 (playable to -160)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
