We swept the board in our final MLB best bets post of last week. We'll look to pick up where we left off with three plays for Monday night.
Vladimir Guerrero: Over 0.5 singles
Guerrero is a single machine. He boasts 50 singles through 58 games, a total bested by only four players league-wide.
He's hitting a single in 60% of his games this season and doing his best work on home soil. Vladdy's picked up a single in 67% of his home games, compared to 55% on the road. That's a pretty drastic swing, so playing at home should help his cause Monday night.
Although Grayson Rodriguez is a tough matchup, there's reason to believe Guerrero can find a way to hit a single.
He's hitting .305 against right-handed pitchers on the season, which is significantly higher than the .238 batting average he's mustering up versus lefties.
Rodriguez's splits also work in Guerrero's favor. He's allowing opposing righties to hit .255 against him while holding left-handed bats to a .225 average.
In a ballpark that, after renovations, benefits contact hitters more than power, I like Guerrero to pick up a single in this game.
Odds: -125 (playable to -155)
Justin Verlander: Under 2.5 earned runs
We targeted Verlander in his last start against the Mariners, and he dominated, allowing only one run while striking out nine batters over seven innings of work. We're going right back to the well in an advantageous matchup against the Cardinals.
Verlander allowed two runs or fewer in six of eight starts this season. The two failures came against the Brewers and Yankees, who rank first and second in OBP against right-handed pitchers, respectively, this season.
The Cardinals don't hold a candle to either of those offenses. They sit 20th in OBP versus right-handed pitchers and are tied for 25th in runs scored per game. They are not a team to fear.
Verlander conceded two or less in 24 of his past 36 home starts (66%) and, even at 41 years of age, is again looking like one of the better pitchers in the sport.
Expect his success to continue against the red birds.
Odds: -130 (playable to -150)
Matt Waldron: Over 4.5 strikeouts
Waldron is on fire. He's registered at least five strikeouts in four consecutive starts, averaging 7.75 per game in that span.
Waldron faced the Dodgers and Braves over the four-game stretch, so it's not as if he was simply feasting on bottom-feeders. He excelled against strong competition as well.
His underlying metrics have also been remarkably good of late. Among the day's projected starters, Waldron is throwing strikes at a higher rate than all but Cy Young candidate Tarik Skubal over the past four starts.
He struck out 33.7% of opposing batters in that span while posting a .224 xwOBA and 1.9% barrel rate. Those are superstar-caliber numbers.
Waldron's success should continue against the Angels. They hit .189 versus righties the past two weeks and allowed opposing right-handed starters to pile up five Ks or more in 11 of the past 15 games.
Waldron couldn't ask for a much better matchup to continue his hot streak.
Odds: -120 (playable to -145)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.
