Fantasy: 5 bounce-back candidates

Sometimes, things don't go according to plan. That's as true in baseball as it is anywhere else.

The important thing is to not allow recency bias to scare you away from drafting someone in fantasy. Trust that the talent will win out. Obviously, you can't keep going back to the well if a once-touted player continues to disappoint year after year (looking at you, Jurickson Profar) unless you want to continue wallowing in despair.

With that said, here are five candidates worth considering despite middling-to-bad results in 2019.

ADPs are from FantasyPros as of March 5.
Stat projections are from FanGraphs.

Blake Snell, Rays - SP (ADP 39)

First, take a deep breath and ignore the cortisone shot that Snell just received in his left elbow. Oh, you can't? That's fair.

But, should the injury risk remain at the forefront into the final weeks of spring, his ADP could drop. If Snell can be had at even the smallest discount, he could be a steal. Injuries were an issue in 2019, limiting Snell to 107 innings with a 4.29 ERA. Still, no pitcher who managed at least 100 frames had a better swinging strike rate than Snell's 17.7%. He misses bats and makes opponents look ugly, which explains his 33.3% strikeout rate.

A .343 opposing BABIP was much higher than either of his previous seasons, and his 15.4% HR/FB was likewise inflated.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays - 3B (ADP 57)

Obviously, Guerrero's disappointing rookie season hasn't suppressed his fantasy value. At first blush, you might think it's absurd that he's being targeted as a top-10 third baseman after hitting only 15 home runs in 123 games despite being touted as possessing a game power rating of 70.

The biggest concern was his Eric Hosmer-level ground-ball rate of 49.6%. That's not ideal for a theoretical home run hitter. Guerrero's 12.1 HR/FB% was also quite low, showing that even when he was hitting it in the air, the ball wasn't leaving the ballpark very often.

But ...

The power is there and he hits the ball very hard. And even if he doesn't smack 50 homers, he's going to get on base thanks to a pretty patient approach. With Guerrero expected to hit fourth in a promising Blue Jays lineup behind Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio, there will be ample opportunity to drive in runs.

Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox - OF (ADP 96)

Benintendi was a top-50 pick last year. He's dropped after mustering only 13 home runs in a season where hitters were mashing at record levels. And while power may never be the biggest part of his game, Benny struck out more often, walked less, and stole fewer bases than he had until then.

His 7.9% HR/FB rate was the seventh-lowest among qualified hitters last year. Benintendi skews more as a fly-ball hitter, but they weren't clearing the fence. He was hitting the ball hard (13.4% soft contact) and it resulted more often in doubles (40) than round-trippers.

With his draft stock in the toilet, he's a major bargain who's shown 20-20 skills in the past. Losing Mookie Betts won't greatly inhibit his ability to score with J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers in the lineup, and he should slot in fairly high in the batting order.

Edwin Diaz, Mets - RP (ADP 115)

Diaz should be a no-brainer, but he's the ninth closer being taken on average and is basically a coin flip with similarly underrated Blue Jays reliever Ken Giles.

The 25-year-old had a rough first season in Queens. When opponents made contact, it didn't go well. He posted a 2.33 HR/9 thanks to a ridiculous 26.8% HR/FB rate. Serving up 15 taters in 58 innings after only allowing five long balls across 73 1/3 innings the year before should at least raise the idea that he was a tad snakebitten.

When he wasn't allowing homers, he was sitting people down. He struck out 99 opponents for a 15.36 K/9. His K% was a tick down from 2018, but nothing really went right.

Mitch Keller, Pirates - SP (ADP 209)

Keller's confusingly disastrous rookie campaign has become something of a talking point as we approach the new season. It's worth checking out The Ringer's Ben Lindbergh break down Keller's 2019 in detail and how his career was potentially saved by a reliance on advanced metrics.

The 23-year-old right-hander was obliterated to the tune of a 7.13 ERA over 48 innings across 11 starts. He went 1-5, and a once-promising pitching prospect looked like an overnight bust. However, he was almost certainly the victim of awful luck. Opponents' BABIP was an absurd .475 and he allowed 1.13 home runs per nine innings, which was much higher than he'd posted throughout his minor-league career.