With the MLB regular season right around the corner, one of the biggest factors bettors need to account for is starting pitching.
We have a pretty good idea of how the market values the top arms - you can check out the AL and NL Cy Young odds - but we'll have to rely on long shots to really line our pockets early this year.
Here are three pitchers I believe will be undervalued in 2021.
Sean Manaea (Athletics)
The Athletics have a pair of Cy Young candidates - Jesus Luzardo and Frankie Montas - but Manaea is the ringer in this rotation.
It's easy to forget about the southpaw. Between last year's shortened season and an abbreviated 2019 stint due to injury, Manaea's only registered 16 combined starts. However, he's one of the biggest steals to bet when he's healthy and in command.
The Athletics are 11-6 in Manaea's last 17 starts, with four of those losses coming by two runs or fewer. He quietly racked up a 7.1 WAR across his first three seasons while eating up at least 140 innings in each campaign.
Manaea's never been a power pitcher - he's averaging just 7.3 K/9 for his career - and his advanced metrics last season weren't sexy, but that shouldn't signal a downturn. He's only 29, his velocity ticked up late in 2020, and he plays in the second-most pitcher-friendly park.
We don't think of pitching when we discuss the Athletics, but Manaea should win bettors plenty of games in 2021 as a mainstay on a division favorite. Having one of the major's more potent offenses as support will help.
Sixto Sanchez (Marlins)
The Marlins have freed themselves from MLB's basement following their playoff bid, but they're still underdogs in the cutthroat NL East. However, I can't wait to bet on Sanchez, who came over from the Phillies in the J.T. Realmuto deal.
Sanchez could be a superstar thanks to his skill set. The 22-year-old righty posted a 3.50 FIP and allowed just three homers over 39 innings en route to a seventh-place Rookie of the Year finish in 2021. His xBA, xSLG, hard-hit percentage, and barrel rate, among many other categories, were well above average.
Sanchez was also an underdog in seven of his nine starts last season. The market would literally pay for undervaluing him again.
John Means (Orioles)
The Orioles allowed the most home runs in a season back in 2019. But if you can believe it, Means was one of their bright spots. He recorded a 4.8 WAR, made an All-Star appearance, and finished runner-up in AL Rookie of the Year.
Means was a cash cow that campaign, winning a whopping nine games as an underdog of +140 or better, including four north of +180. Betting markets took notice, only for Means to regress in ERA, FIP, and HR/9 during 2020 while the Orioles lost eight of his 10 starts.
Bettors should give Means a second chance in 2021. He improved in K/9 and WHIP last season while finishing in the top-15 percentile of xERA, xBA, xWOBA, and BB%.
We'll probably see more of the 2019 Means than the '20 version.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.
