We put together a clean card on Tuesday night, successfully backing the Rays to take care of business against the Yankees while fading Johan Oviedo against the Tigers.
Our weekly record now sits at 3-1-1. Let's build on it with three more plays for Thursday night's games.
Reds (+135) @ Cubs (-155)
For all their faults, the Cubs can score runs in bulk. They've plated a ridiculous 36 runs over the past two games, pushing their average to 5.1 for the season - good for fifth in the majors.
The Reds have no answers for them right now and I don't think Luke Weaver is going to change that.
Weaver is one of the worst pitchers in the league, credited with just two wins through 18 starts and an ERA of 6.80. He's consistently off the mark, having allowed at least three runs in 10 of his past 11 starts.
Teams like the Royals and Diamondbacks - who last scored more than four runs in a win on July 19th - have gotten to Weaver in that span, so he doesn't only struggle against high-end offenses. And the Cubs certainly qualify as a high-end offense.
I expect the Cubs to plate a few runs against Weaver, which will put them in a strong spot to win the first half of the game.
Although Jameson Taillon's counting numbers are nothing to write home about either - and the Reds can score - it's worth noting he has conceded one run or fewer in three of the past four. He appears to be turning a corner.
With a big starting pitching advantage - and the hottest offense in the league - I think the Cubs have a strong chance of leading through five innings.
Bet: Cubs F5 -0.5 (-125)
Mitch Keller under 17.5 outs
Keller consistently ate innings in the early part of the season, recording at least 18 outs in 10 of his first 12 starts. He's since cooled down, getting the job done in just five of the past 10.
While still respectable, that's quite a gap. He hit at an 83% clip over the first two months and change yet sits at just 50% the past eight weeks.
Keller completed only five innings the last time he met the Brewers and he has gone under 17.5 in three of the past five overall.
He has struggled to hit the zone during this stretch, throwing balls at a higher clip than all but four of Thursday's projected starters.
Keller has given up plenty of good contact as well, ranking second to only Luke Weaver in xwOBA using the same criteria as above.
He fares worse against lefties than righties and - led by Christian Yelich and Sal Frelick - the Brewers have some good left-handed bats. The Brewers also rank top 10 in wOBA and own the sixth-lowest strikeout rate against righties the past two weeks.
I think the Brewers are going to force Keller out of the game before he can complete six innings.
Odds: +105 (playable to -120)
Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 total bases
Ohtani is red hot at the plate. After a six-game quiet spell in which he recorded just one hit, Ohtani has regained his usual form.
He's recorded at least one hit in seven consecutive contests for a total of 11 in that span.
An increase in hit volume is obviously leading to success in total bases. Ohtani has registered 21 bases over the last eight games, going over his total in six of them.
There's every reason to believe he'll do it again Thursday night against the Mariners. While Bryan Woo is a talented young arm, he struggles to slow down left-handed batters.
Woo owns a .390 ISO and .392 xwOBA versus lefties this season. Those are truly horrific numbers and vastly different from what he puts up against righties.
With Ohtani performing well at the dish, and Woo giving up insane power to left-handed batters, I think it's likely Ohtani makes noise in this game.
Odds: -115 (playable to -130)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
