With the MLB regular season right around the corner and pitching a pivotal handicap, we dished out three starters who will be profitable in 2021. Today, we'll look at the opposite side of the coin.
These three pitchers will be overvalued. Bettors, beware.
Brad Keller (Royals)
Read any fantasy baseball sleeper-related article, and you'll probably find Keller's name in it. After going 7-14 with a 4.19 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and 1.355 WHIP in 2019, the right-hander notched career bests in just about every category during the shortened season. Keller - who was named the Royals' Pitcher of the Year - was exceptionally profitable: Bettors wagering $100 on Kansas City in each of Keller's nine starts would have come out with a profit of $523.
I'm personally hesitant to bet on the 25-year-old this spring and summer. While most of his numbers improved significantly from last year, Keller was also lucky in a few aspects. Not only did he fail to strike out a ton of batters - he posted just 5.8 K/9 and has never surpassed 6.6 over a full season - his -0.067 difference in batting average allowed (.202) compared to expected batting average allowed (.269) was the fourth-worst clip for qualified starters.
Keller didn't give up a lot of contact in 2020 - his 2.8 Brls/PA% was a top-five mark in baseball - but there's bound to be at least some regression, especially after he somehow only allowed two extra-base hits over a span of 43.2 innings at one point.
While he may have been a solid look last season, Keller won't have the attractive price tags attached to his name in 2021 to warrant consistent betting.
Max Fried (Braves)
This is an easy call. The Braves went a blistering 13-2 in games Fried started last season, which would have netted $100 bettors $961. Now, the southpaw seemingly only has one way to go.
Similar to Keller, expect regression from Fried - he surrendered just .032 HR/9 and led the majors with a 2.2 Brls/PA%. Over the course of a full season and in a park that's been top 10 in runs created in two of the last three years, Fried will come down to earth.
Dylan Bundy (Angels)
The change of scenery from the Orioles to the Angels did Bundy well in 2020. The 28-year-old's peripherals were off the charts, he put together his first winning season since 2017, and he placed inside the top-10 in Cy Young voting.
That had to put a smile on bettors' faces - after all, Bundy's 15-30 overall win-loss record in Baltimore from 2018-19 should speak to how much money he flushed down the drain. But instead of buying into the feel-good story, sell, and quick.
Bundy's 8.2% HR/FB rate from last year will likely skyrocket in 2021 - his average rate over his first four qualified seasons was 14.8%. Playing in a park that's been one of the best for Home Runs per High Drive doesn't help Bundy, either.
The market likes the Angles this season a lot, but I can't get on board. Bundy, in particular, will be one of my favorite fades early.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.
